Statistics Canada Preliminary 2021 Seeding Estimates

On April 27, Statistics Canada released its first seeded area estimates for 2021 based on their field crop surveys and presented in the Principal Field Crop Areas report. There are two of these survey-based seeded area reports issued each year, the next one will be on June 29, 2021 (see description of Field Crop Survey reports below). As expected, barley area is forecast up from 2020, with increases also projected for canola, soybeans, flax and corn, while wheat and oat areas are projected lower. The data is based on a survey of producers conducted in March. With significant market volatility in recent months, farmers may have made some adjustments to their seeding decisions since that time which could result in some considerable modifications to the final outcomes.

At 8.613 million acres, this would be the largest barley seeded area in Canada since 2009. This will be the fourth consecutive year of increases since 2017 when barley seeded area fell to 5.77 mln acres, its lowest level since the early 1960s.

StatCan Field Crop Reporting Series: “The purpose of the field crop surveys is to obtain information on seeded and harvested field crop areas, average yields, production and on-farm stocks at strategic times over the course of a typical crop cycle, which ranges from spring to late fall. Therefore, the field crop surveys are conducted in March, June, July, November and December.”

Barley Area by Province

The increase in seeded barley area this year is driven in particular by the forecast for Saskatchewan (up 24.5%), with higher projections for Manitoba and Alberta as well. While Alberta remains the largest province in terms of barley area at 3.949 mln acres, Saskatchewan is not far behind this year at 3.889 mln acres. The last time Saskatchewan barley seeded area exceeded Alberta’s was 2005. Manitoba’s barley area has been growing for the past few years after bottoming out at 265,000 acres in 2017, with this year’s area estimated at 460,000 acres, its highest level since 2013. Meanwhile projected area in Eastern Canada declined this year driven by a significant drop in area in Ontario, down to 55,100 acres from 89,900 acres in 2020. For more information on barley area and production by region in Western Canada, visit the CMBTC’s new interactive Crop Data Map on the website.

For more information

Peter Watts – Managing Director
Telephone: 204-983-1981 Fax: 204-984-5843

Dr. Yueshu Li – Director of Malting & Brewing Operations
Telephone: 204-984-0561 Fax: 204-984-5843

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