August 30 2021
Statistics Canada releases 2021 Crop Production Estimates
Statistics Canada released its preliminary 2021 crop production estimates for Canada on August 30 (view it here). The estimates are based on yield models using satellite imagery taken in July.* The table below shows the significant drop in production year over year in almost all crops except corn, due to this year’s drought. According to StatsCan “Farmers across Western Canada have had to contend with a lack of rain and higher-than-average temperatures throughout the growing season. This has exacerbated soil moisture conditions, which were already low at the start of the year. These factors have negatively impacted crop growth and yield potential across much of the Prairies.
The 2021 barley production forecast is based on higher harvested area, compared with 2020, at 7.5 million acres, up 7.8% (seeded area was up 9.7% over 2020). However, it also showed well below average yields of 48.1 bushels per acre, compared with 71.1 bushels per acre in 2020 and the 10 year average of 66.1 bushels per acre.
Barley production is pegged at 7.836 million tonnes compared with 10.741 million tonnes in 2020, down 27% year over year. This is the smallest crop since 2014 which saw output of 7.117 million tonnes of production. The significant drop in output will mean a very tight supply and demand scenario for Canada in 2021-22 and will impact Canada’s ability to export barley this year, both feed and malting barley. The short, drought-affected crop will also present challenges for Canada’s malting barley value chain in terms of sourcing and meeting demand in the coming year for domestic and international maltsters and brewers.
Note that these production estimates are based on satellite images taken in July. As hot, dry weather persisted into the middle of August, it is very likely that final production numbers will be lower than the figures published in this report.
Notes from StatCan:
- Statistics Canada has relied upon proven satellite technology to model preliminary crop yields and production since 2016. These methods have successfully been used to produce September yield estimates since 2016, and they replaced July yield estimates beginning in 2020. While dry conditions may lead to an increase in abandoned acres, coarse resolution-based modelling relies on historical averages for harvested area.
- On September 14, 2021, Statistics Canada will release an updated modelled yield and production estimates for field crops in Canada as of August 31, 2021. These data are derived from remote sensing, survey and agroclimatic data sources.
- Final harvested area estimates will be published on December 3, 2021, based on the November 2021 Field Crop Survey.
For more information
Peter Watts – Managing Director
Telephone: 204-983-1981 Fax: 204-984-5843
E-mail: pwatts@cmbtc.com
Dr. Yueshu Li – Director of Malting & Brewing Operations
Telephone: 204-984-0561 Fax: 204-984-5843
E-mail: yli@cmbtc.com