StatCan September Crop Production Estimates
On September 14, 2023, StatCan released their latest crop production estimates for Canada based on yield models using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. According to the report, “the Crop Condition Assessment Program indicates that overall plant health in the Prairie provinces was lower to much lower than normal as of August 31, raising the possibility that yields will be lower to much lower than normal. Across much of Western Canada, lower-than-average precipitation and high temperatures resulted in poorer crop conditions than in 2022.” With an average barley yield estimate of 54.8 bushels per acre, compared with 70.4 bu/acre in 2022, a drop of 22.2%, barley production is projected to fall 21% to 7.84 mln tonnes, in spite of a 4% increase in seeded area.
COMMENTARY
While there is little doubt crop yields suffered this growing season, particularly in western Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, anecdotal reports from producers in other regions suggest more average yields which may mean the StatCan estimates will ultimately prove on the low side. A number of analysis are projecting barley output closer to 8.5 million tonnes. Quality is likely to be all over the map with low proteins reported in eastern Saskatchewan contrasted with very high protein levels in dry areas. Late season rains created headaches for some producers, slowing maturity and harvest progress, and has resulted in pre-harvest sprout damage in some regions. The Canadian malt barley value chain will have its work cut out this year to sort through the variable quality and source its requirements.
The CMBTC does not offer advice or recommendations with respect to production or marketing decisions to the barley industry, and this information should not be construed as such. The information contained in this report is in part contributed by a third-party provider.
